未来十年中亚地区形势展望

FORECASTING CENTRAL ASIA’S SITUATION IN THE NEXT DECADE

目前，中亚地区已进入一个相对稳定的发展阶段，保持政局基本稳定仍将是中亚各国发展的主流。中亚地区日见凸现的战略地位，使得大国和地区大国在该地区的角逐将更趋激烈。同时，对里海石油资源的争夺、伊斯兰原教旨主义的蔓延等诸多不确定因素将对中亚地区的稳定和安全构成严重威胁。

The article is divided into four parts:(1)The basic orientation of the Central Asian States’ politics, economics and diplomacy. The article says that in nearly ten years these states have respectively established a state system with the president as a nucleus and a power structure of “strong president and weak parliament”.All these states are following a road of gradual economic reform and are making slight economic growth. They have adopted a pragmatic omni-directional diplomatic strategy to keep balance among various international forces, thus obtaining universal international admission.(2)The trend of the struggle for Central Asia by the U.S., Russia and other regional forces. The article maintains that in the next ten years there will emerge a power structure marked by the struggle between the U.S. and Russia as the major players and the confrontation with US-Turkey on one side and Russia-Iran on the other.(3)The factors of instability and uncertainty. They are: the struggle over the oil resources on the Caspian Sea, the reemergence of the “hot spots”,the speeding of Islamic fundamentalism, the influence of “Taliban” and the ethnic conflicts and regionalism.(4)The relations between China and Central Asian states. The relations will see an all round development in the next decade, although some problems will still remain for further joint effort to solve.