世纪之交的东北亚形势及其发展前景

SITUATION IN NORTHEAST ASIA AT THE JUNCTURE OF TWO CENTURIES AND THE PROSPECT OF ITS DEVELOPMENT

去年下半年以来，东北亚和朝鲜半岛形势出现了一些积极的变化，冷战的坚冰走向解冻。中日美俄等大国围绕东北亚形势的发展，不断协调相互关系，地区安全形势喜忧参半。东北亚地区逐渐克服金融危机所造成的冲击和影响，经济形势日趋好转。

Director of CPDS. The article has three parts. The first part mainly discusses the multipolar political relationship among the “Big four” (China, Japan, the US and Russia), holding that the relationship shows a relative stability and a slight development which will actively exert influence on the region. Also being observed are the new situation on Korean Peninsula which was an inevitable outcome of the post war Korean history and Taiwan Question which on the contrary, has turned more complicated. The second part discusses security affairs. The article argues that the US, while having a heavy influence on the security prospect in Northeast Asia, plays a role of strategic deterrence for the region. TMD, NMD and the new security guide line with Japan-all these indicate the strengthening of US security strategy in Northeast Asia. The third part of the article touches economic aspect of the region which has shown some signs of rapid recovery.