老年骨质疏松性髋部骨折危险预测

Risk prediction of senile osteoporotic fracture

目的综合考虑引起老年人髋部骨折的两个重要因素，设计新预测指标ＢＭＤ／Ｉ，利用多测量区分析提高老年人骨质疏松性髋部骨折危险预测的准确性和可靠性。方法用ＤＥＸＡ测量骨折组和对照组的髋部骨密度，根据有关物理定律推导新预测指标的计算公式。结果利用判别分析得到预测老年人骨质疏松性髋部骨折危险性的判别函数组及预测正确率。讨论多测量区分析较通常采用的单测量区分析预测正确率明显提高，判别函数组可作为计算机辅助诊断的基础。

Purpose:Designing new index for risk prediction of senile osteoporotic fractures according to the two main causes that cause senile hip fractures;improving the reliability and correctness of risk prediction.Method:Measuring BMD of hips by DEXA;deducing the formula of the new predication index according to laws of physics.Results:By discriminant analysis,prediction function groups and the rates of prediction correctness were obtained.Conclusion:The prediction correctness is much improved by multiarea analysis.The function groups are bases for computerbased diagnosis and the prediction results can be used as reference for clinical doctors.