肝癌年龄别发病(死亡)率曲线数学模型拟合的研究

Model fitting of practical PLC age morbidity (mortality) data curve

目的：研究对肝癌发病死亡率实际数据的数学拟合模型，有助于指导肝癌预防实践工作。方法：选择香港、上海、天津等8个点的肝癌年龄别发病（死亡）率资料，采用改进的模型对这8处资料进行数学公式模拟，给出了各参数的值，拟合相关系数在0．72～0．99之间，拟合度在0．51～0．98之间。结果：发现年龄别发病（死亡）率曲线的极值即众数Ratemax值降低，则发病（死亡）率曲线高度下降；a值减小，则发病（死亡）率在小年龄时上升，反之则发病（死亡）率曲线右移至大年龄时上升；b值下降发病（死亡）率曲线左移往小年龄；c值下降发病（死亡）率曲线基点升高。结论：肝病预防要抓小，抓早。

We have developed a mathmatical model to describe the practical PLC(Primary Liver Cancer) age mobidity (mortality) data curve of eight selected areas include Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tianjin etc. We gave out the corresponding value of a , b, c, and Ratemax four model parameters. The fitting coefficient of the model is between 0. 51 ~0. 98, the relation coefficient is between 0. 72~ 0. 99. We found that if we changed the value of each paraxneter in the model, the fitting curve will shift to increase in smaller age when absolute value a increased; If b value decreased, the fitting curve will shift to smaller age; If c value decreased, the start point of fitting curve will increased. If Ratemax decreased. the acme point of fitting curve will decreased. Combine with practical meaning of four parameters, we suggested that we should control PLC at younger and earlier age.