航天系统快速风险分析法

METHODS FOR RAPID RISK ANALYSIS OF SPACE SYSTEM

风险分析是大型工程,特别是具有高风险的航天系统可行性研究、案论证和方案评审等的主要内容之一。已经开发的对费用、进度、性能进行综合风险分析的计算机软件,如GERT,VERT,RISNET,SLAM 等,要求分析人员经过专门的培训,且工作量大,使用不便。文章给出了等风险轮廓线法、风险参数法和概率事件分析法三种快速、简便的风险分析方法,适合于一般工程技术人员,特别是管理人员在实际工作中应用。

Risk analysis is one of the important items of feasibility stu-dy,concept research and project review on a space system with high risk.Considering the complexity involved in the application of the syntheticanalysis methods,such as GERT,VERT,RISNET and SLAM,the paperpresents three rapid and convenient risk analysis methods,e.g.IsoriskContour Method,Risk Parameter Method and Probability Event Analysiswhich are suitable to the engineers and technicians,especially the mana-gers,for easy using.