道路养护作业时的交通事故风险度预测

Forecasting the Risk of Traffic Accident During Highway Maintenance

高速公路养护时的风险性受到诸如交通流状态、作业位置、作业环境、操作水平等多种因素的影响。由于这些因素中的有些是可以通过一定的方法加以确定的，而有些则是难以确定的。这给高速公路养护的风险预测带来了困难。本文运用灰色系统理论，通过分析历史事故数据，建立了风险预测模型，其预测结果具有令人满意的精度。

he riskiness of traffic accident duringhighway maintenance under traffic being openedis discussed.By defining the riskiness of trafficaccident and using Grey Forecasting Theory,theforecasting model is founded.An umnerical ex-ample shows the forecasting model has relativelysatisfactory precision.