应用两极催化模型拟合麻风年龄患病专率的比较研究

The Study of Applying Two-stage Cataly tic Models to Comparison between Leprosy Age-Specific Prevalence Rates

本文对扬州地区1985年的麻风年龄患病专率应用改进的两极催化模型拟合,并与1975年的催化模型拟合结果比较。通过模型参数■,b,k的变化,发现该地区经过十年防治,麻风感染力明显下降,人群消除疾病的能力有所提高;进一步证实了这三个参数分别代表了疾病感染力、疾病排除率和防治效果指标,可应用催化模型对不同时期、不同地区的疾病年龄患病率拟合分析,对疾病的感染力、人群排除疾病的能力和防治效果进行综合评价。

The Two-stage catalytic models can be used to simulate the distribution of age-specific pre- valence rates of some infectious diseases and age-specific positive rates of some indicators, to measure their force of infection and force of against disease. It is certainly significant for researching and evaluating the effect of the disease control programme. In this paper the author used an ameliora- tive two-stage catalytic model (LogTCM) which was transformed by the equation developed by the author to simulate age-specific prevalence rates of leprosy in Yangzhou Prefecture in 1985 and analyse the results in comparison with 1975. The fact of the study comfirmed that the parameters a and b represent the force of infec- tion and the force of against disease respecti- vely, pass through vertical section of leprosy endemic situation and leprosy control. Through analysing and comparing the prac- tical leprosy prevalence rates to three parame- ters of the catalytic model, it is obvious that the prevalence rates are changed directly with parameter a and inversely with parameter b,k. Catalytic models may be used to simulate and analyse the disease data in various periods, regions or masses for comprehensive evaluation of the disease.