对中国民航实施未来航行系统（FANS）的成本／效益分析

A Cost/Benefit Analysis of China's Implementation of FANS

本文提出按照FANS(Future Air Navigation Systems)概念在中国实施以卫星为基础的未来通信、导航和监视(CNS)系统的成本/效益分析。文中对中国民用航空飞机进行了分类、统计,对未来发展进行了预测,并在一定假设的基础上对实施未来CNS系统的成本和效益进行了估算。结果表明,效益成本比约为2.6:1,从而证明FANS方案不仅在技术上先进,能克服现有航行系统的缺点,而且在经济上也有明显效益。

This paper gives a cost/benefit analysis of China's implementation of the satellite-based future Cmmunication, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) systems. It classi- fies the statistics of the aircraft in China's civil aviation and forecasts the future develop- ment. Based on certain assumptions, a cost/benefit estimate of the implementation of the future CNS systems is formed. The result shows that the ratio of benefit to cost is approximately 2.6:1. This result consequently verifies that the FANS concept is not only advanced in technical aspects to overcome the shortcomings of the present CNS systems, but also brings obvious economic benefit.