冬小麦气候生产力的宏观动态模拟模型

A Macroscopic Dynamic Simulating Model on Climate Productivity of Winter Wheat

根据作物群体光合作用特性与宏观气候生态条件的密切关系,提出了作物气候生产力是作物气候生产“潜力项”和生物气候“限制项”组成的.其中“潜力项”可用作物光合作用过程的气候生产潜力模式进行模拟,而“限制项”则可以根据关键期的主要限制性生物气候因子的影响求算.基于这一模式结构,利用1985～1989年冬小麦田间试验资料,以及同期的地面气象平行观测资料(陕西,泾阳),建立了冬小麦气候生产力宏观动态模拟模型.模拟结果与实际产量相当接近,平均相对误差小于5%.这说明潜力项加限制项的估产模式是一种行之有效的新结构.

Accroding to the close relationships between photosynthesis character of crop colony and climatic ecological environment, the climatic productivity of crop may be divided into two parts including the'potential term' and the 'Iimiting term'. The'potential term' means the crop productive level and its variance determined by macroscopic climatic conditions, but the'Iimiting term' means limiting factors from risk or restriction of ecological conditions. Therefore, a new structure of simulation model to estimate both the potential and limiting term of macroscopic climatic productivity of winter wheat was established successfully based on the field experiment data from 1985 to 1989 (Guanzhong Plain, Shaanxi Province). The simulating yields is very similar to actual yields, the mean relative error is less 5% , the simulation results show a new approach of forecasting crop yield and suitablity to operational system.