地貌灾害预测预报的基本问题——以泥石流预测预报为例

The Basic Topics of Prediction and Forecast for Geomorphic Hazards ——Taking Debris Flow as an Example

从地貌灾害的定义入手 ,阐述了地貌灾害预测预报需要解决的四个基本问题、解决这四个问题的二种途径 ,以及进行预测预报的四种方法。以泥石流为例 ,论述了泥石流预测预报的现状及其热点、难点和可能的突破点 ,以及目前和今后一段时期的切入点和研究重点。综述了国内外对泥石流小尺度空间预测 ,规模预测 ,时间预测 ,包括重现期预测、降雨预测和危险度预测的一系列有实用价值的经验公式及其在应用中存在的问题。阐明了灾害评价和预测预报在灾害学研究中的重要地位。

From the definition of geomorphic hazards,this paper expounds four basic topics should be solved for the prediction and forecast of geomorphic hazards.Two ways and four methods are introduced for the prediction and forecast.Taking debris flow as an example,the paper discusses the research developments and hot spots,difficult points,and possible breakthrough points,as well as the research emphases and possible points of tangency at present and later period of time.Also the paper summarizes a series of practical empirical formulae and their applied problems for the small_scale space prediction,magnitude prediction,occurrence prediction including reoccurrence year,rainfall and hazard degree for debris flows in national and international scopes.Finally the paper clarifies the importance of hazard assessment,prediction and forecast in the domain of castastrophology.