提高随机系统预测可靠性的方法

An Approach for Raising Forecasted Reliability of Stochastic System

预测的可靠性直接影响企业决策的正确性 .对于新型的复杂随机系统的预测方法的研究及随机系统预测的可靠性研究是预测工作者非常关注的 .文中较详细地阐述了如何保证随机系统的预测可靠性的方法 ,并以较典型的随机系统——物流系统为例进行分析 .将该方法应用于具体的某物流园区的市场预测 。

Forecasted reliability effects directly decision making of business.Forecasting research workers show solicitude for the research of forecasting method and forecasted reliability in the stochastic system. This paper deals with how to insure reliability of forecast for stochastic system.An example is given to analyze a logistics system in the paper.It demonstrates the method.A good resnlt in application of the mechod to a logistics area is obtained.