汛期土质边坡塌方灾害的预测和预防

Prediction and Prevention of Disastrous Slump of Soil Slope in Flood Season

本课题首次运用虚拟变量多元回归分析原理,研究出一种以边坡表层工程地质条件为变量,以“一场连续实效降雨量”作为边坡抗洪能力指标的汛期土质边坡塌方预报方法。在研究过程中对全国范围内业已发生的一千多个塌方工点进行调查,室内对3万多个数据进行数理统计计算,得出了“全国铁路边坡抗洪能力评分表”并提出了警戒雨量的确定方法。此方法的应用效果已在一些铁路局得到了证实。使人们对汛期土质边坡塌方进行区段和工点“时空联合预报”的愿望成为现实,并从理论上为工务部门制定防洪抢险工作程序和路基边坡防洪资金及时间安排计划提供了科学依据。

Based on the principle of regressive analysis for fictitious multi-variables, the present study provides a prediction method for soil slope collapses in flood seasons, in which the surface geological parameters are used as variables and an effective continuous precipitation as the index for anti-flood capacity of the slope. A table of numerical assessment for the anti-flood capacity of various sideslopes in the railway network is developed as a result of investigation over more than 1000 collapse sites and of statistical calculation for over 30000 items of data. A method to determine the warning precipitation is also put forward. The mothod is proved to be practical and offeetive by its use in a few railway administrations.