企业经营的周期波动及其预警

The Cyclical Fluctuations and Its Prediction in Business

依据经济景气周期分析预警的基本原理,分析了我国企业存在的四种经营周期波动:行业周期、行政周期、产品周期和管理周期,并探讨了剩余法和压力分析法的建模及在企业经营中的应用。

This paper analysed the four forms of the cyclical fluctuation in business in our country: trade, administrative, product and managerial cyclical changes, and studied how to construct the models of residual method and pressure analysis method and with which to predict the business cycles.