船舶航道航行危险度评估方法研究

On the Approach to Assessing Ship Navigation Risk in Channels

为了保证船舶交通安全,避免海损事故,对航行危险度进行评估是一项非常重要的工作,影响船舶交通安全的因素是多方面的,以往许多专家学者从不同角度提出了不同的方法,但在实际运用中还存在着一些问题。随着系统理论的发展和数学工具的完善,本文提出用航行危险度进行评估船舶交通安全,首先分析了影响航行安全诸因素,并对其进行定量化,最后运用灰色系统理论,建立了评价船舶航行危险度的模型。本文所研究的航道航行危险度,是指用于评价各种类型船舶在某一水域、航道中危险程度及可能性的大小。航行危险度是安全评价的重要内容之一。

It is of great importance to assess ship traffic safety condition, which is influenced by many factors. Experts have proposed different methods of assessment, but they all have problems in practical use. This paper, taking all the influential factors into account, suggests using navigation risk to assess ship traffic safety. On the basis of various factors' quantitative models, Grey system is finally used to establish a model to evaluate ship navigation risk.