摘要
本文给出了一种方法,它是由被咨询者对某战略问题的关键事件提供每一事件发生的初始概率及事件间的相互影响数值,通过交叉影响模拟,得出最终情景概率。解决了情景分析方法中的一个关键性技术问题。
With a view to solving a key technical problem in the scenario method, this paper presents an approach to calculate the final values of scenario probabilities. In applying this approach, the experts should first provide initial probabilities of key events concerning the strategic problem and the matrix of the value of interaction between the events, and then cross-impact simulation can be used to calculate the resulting scenario probabilities.
出处
《上海海运学院学报》
1993年第1期46-52,共7页
Journal of Shanghai Maritime University
关键词
运筹学
排序
交叉
影响
情景分析
operations research, sequencing, intersection, influence, probability
scenario, key event, simulation probability
