一种定性与定量相结合的预测方法

A New Forecasting Methodology Combining of Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

国内外开发了许多用于经济领域的决策和预测的计算机分析模型,但它们在应用中受到一定限制,尤其在人机关系、定性与定量关系上往往顾此失彼。现提出一种称为"词模系统"的模型。探讨了把人的主观判断定量化的途径,提出了根据预测模型在历史上产生的最大误差来调整预测值的方法,并以内蒙古农业机械公司的销售数据为实例进行了分析。结果表明,使定性与定量方法相结合来预测经济领域的问题,并在计算机上实现是可能的和有效的。

A lot of computer-aid decision making and forecasting models used for e- conomic analysis have been developed both in China and abroad,but the application of these models is still limited,and some serious inconveniences are existed.A new methodology named'modifying model system'is developed.By means of the sys- tem and models,the way to quantitate the specialists subjective assessment is stud- ied and the maximum error index to adjust forecasting result is advanced.Finally, the application of the new methodology is made to forecast Inner Mongolia Agricul- tural Machinery Market.The results show that it is definitly possible and effective combining qualitative and quantitative methodology to forecast economic develop- ment and make models basing on computer application.