用蒙特卡洛仿真研究电起爆子系统可靠性

A STUDY OF THE RELIABILITY OF ELECTROEXPLOSIVESUBSYSTEM USING MONTE CARLO MODELLING

叙述了用感度统计数据与蒙特卡洛方法相结合的计算机仿真技术，评价电起爆子系统可靠性的方法和相应的计算机程序RMCEES。研究了两种典型的电起爆子系统：机床灭火用直流电发火回路（简称Ⅰ型回路）和引信用贮能电容器发火回路（简称Ⅱ型回路）。对两种系统可靠性用RMCEES程序在Su-per-XT计算机上进行了数十万次仿真试验，基于试验用发火回路元件参数，两种系统的可靠性分别估计为大于99.9％和大于99.999%。程序还预报了Ⅰ型回路可靠性不低于 99.99%时，电源电压的控制下限为4.67V。RMCEES程序也可用于非电起爆子系统（如弹簧击针发火系统）和其它类似系统的可靠性评估、预报和参数的优化设计。

Describes computer simulation combining sensitivity statistic data and the Monte Carlo method in the process of evaluation for the reliability of electroexplosive subsystems,and a corresponding computer programme RMCEES.Two types of typical electroexplosive subsystems have been studied,viz.the DC electric firing circuit for machine tool fire extinguishing (type I circuit),and the firing circuit for energystorage capacitor used in fuzes (type Ⅱ circuit).Hundreds of thousands of simulation tests have been performed for the two types of systems using the programme RMCEES on a Super-XT computer.Based on the parameters of the circuits,the estimated reliabilities of the two systems are no less than 99.9% and 99.999% respectively.The programme also predicts that the controlled lower threshold for voltage of power supply is 4.67 volt when the reliability of type I circuit is no less than 99.99%.Futhermore,the programme RMCEES can be used in reliability estimation and prediction and parameter optimization design of non-electric initiating subsystems (e.g.spring pin firing system) and other similar systems.