超前发展时期电话实占数预测体系模型的研究

Forecasting system model of telephone chose in taking-lead developing period

针对超前发展时期电话实占数预测中所遇到的一些新问题，在综合国内外各种预测方法的基础上，结合实际情况，提出了一种电话实占数预测体系模型。该模型避开了常规预测模型的缺陷，根据不同发展阶段的数据特性，采用相应的适用预测模型，再进行综合拟合，具有实用、科学以及适于计算机决策等特点。

In view of some new problems THAT encountered in telephone chose forecasting in the taking-lead developing period,a forecasting system motel of telephone chose is proposed based upon linking the actual circumstances and synthesiz-ing different methods of prediction both at home and abroad.This method getting around drawbacks of conventional prediction,depending upon the data features at different stages,adopts corresponding suitable forecasting model and then takes summarizing and fitting。It has the merit of practical, scientific and fitted to computer decision-making.