一个自组织气候模型

A Self Organization Climate Model

本文选择全球平均地表温度T和全球平均云量n为状态变量．通过对气候系统中物理过程的研究与在气候意义上的合理近似，得到行星反照率。和大气有效发射率ε与状态变量的参数化关系，它们给出了气候系统内部几个重要的反馈过程。利用这些结果，建立起一个云和辐射相互作用的零维的非线性气候模型。在Hopf分支点附近，得到极限环的解析解，它们同数值解吻合得相当好，由解析解得到振幅，周期和位相差与太阳常数和CO2的近似关系，依此可估计它们在气候振荡中的作用，尤其，我们发现CO2的增加除有增温效应外，还能使气候振荡的振幅增加，这个结果意味着CO2的增加可能导致自然灾害周期性地出现或加剧。

Chosen the global average surface temperature T and cloudiness n as state variables, the relations of the planetary albedo 2 and the atmospheric effective emissivity E with the state variables are given that work on the several important feedback processes in the climate system. A highly simplified nonlinear climate model, which showg'a self organization mechanism for cloud radiation intotactions, is formulated. Near the Hopf bifurcation, the analytical solutions of the limit cycle are obtained that are quite in agreement with the numerical solutions. With these analytical solutions. the effect of CO2 and solar radiation on the amplitude, period and phase lag are examined. Especially, we find that in addition to the increasing temperature, an increase in concentration of carbon dioxide could inhance sharply the amplitudes of climate oscillation. This implies that the increasing of carbon dioxide could periodically bring about the disaster and aggravation of its damage.