一个η坐标有限区域数值预报模式对1993年中国汛期降水的实时预报试验

A Test for Numerical Weather Prediction of Real-Time for China Flood Seasou Precipitation in 1993 by a Regional η-Coordinate Model

本文通过展示一个有限区域数值预报模式对1993年中国汛期降水的实时预报试验结果，介绍一个能考虑我国复杂地形的，适合于我国计算机条件的，对我国夏季降水有相当预报能力的η坐标的有限区域数值预报模式。从6月中旬到8月下旬，连续50多天实时降水预报试验的TS（ThreatScore）技术评分（模式范围）平均为：雨区范围（24／h时降水大于1mm）预报的TS值为50．2％；24小时降水大于10mm和25mm的TS值分别为28．1%和17．3%．优于国内有些已用于业务预报的有限区域数值预报模式的预报结果。模式对1993年梅雨、川西暴雨和华北暴雨都有很好的预报。

In this paper, a regional E-grid η-coordinate model has been introdueed to Chinese meteorologists by showing its testing real-time numerical weather prediction results for china noodereason precpitu-tion in 1993. The averaged threat scores of three thresholds, 1 mm, 10 mm and 25 mm Per day, for about 50 daily succession nowcasting experiments (from Jun 15 to August 6) are 5O.2%,28.1% and 17.3%, respectively, The model has well predicted the plum rains and western Sichuan and North China heavy rains in these Periods.The model might include varied topography, suit China computer condition and have certain pre-diction ability for precipitation, and keeps the advantage of some operational limited area model in China.