现代结构系统可靠性估算理论的发展及若干问题

DEVELOPMENT AND SOME PROBLEMS ON THE MODERN RELIABILIT Y EVALU AT ION THEORY OF STRU CTU RAL SYSTEMS

本文简要介绍了大型结构系统可靠性估算理论的发展概况，对各个时期有代表性的估算方法进行了比较系统的分析，重点阐述了复杂系统可靠性精确估算理论的整体框架，对近年来兴起的ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ有限元混合技术的应用前景做了粗略的预测。

n this paper,a brief introduction is given to the developing state of reliability evaluation theory of a largescale structural syStems,and a systematic analysis is made on those reliability evaluation methods which arewidely used in the last decades' Emphasis is laid on stating the principal thought of the exact evaluation theoryof comples systems,and a trend prediction is made on application prospect of monte carlo finite element mixedtechnique,which come into faShion in the last years.