中国活动积温对气候变暖的响应

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE RESPONSE OF ACTIVE ACCUMULATED TEMPERATURE OF CHINA TO CLIMATE WARMING

活动积温是衡量一个地区农业热量资源的重要指标。未来大气中ＣＯ２等温室气体浓度增加一倍的情景下，全球气候将明显变暖，我国各地的活动积温及持续日数也将有所增加。由于气温增高后积温及其相应的持续日数将同步变化，使此类问题的计算具有一定的难度。本文从积温原理出发，提出一套依据气温变化平均值计算活动积温及其持续日数变化的新方法，并用此方法估算了未来我国各地≥０℃、≥１０℃活动积温及其持续日数的变化。

Active accumulated temperature is an important index of agriculture heat resource in a region. In future 2×CO2 scenario global climate will be warmer, and accumulated temperature and lasting days of china will increase. Because of simuteneous change of accumulated temperature and its lasting days after warming. the calculation of this problem is difficult. In this paper, a set of simple and practical formals are deduced based on the changing regularity of active accumulated temperature. We can take any form ouput data of GCM mean air temperature to calculate them, and the suitability is good. We also estimate the distribution of changing values of accumulated temperature (≥0℃,≥10℃)and lasting days. The calculated results show that in the scenario of 2×CO2, the accumulated temperature and its lasting days will be increased. For example. the increment of≥0℃ accumuleted temperature △ ΣT0 in north China has a trend of gradual decrease along the latitudes from 430(℃ ·d) to 240 (℃·d). In the YianZi River valley,△ΣT0 will be about 430-490 (℃·d ), but in the south, △ ΣT0 will be constent -490 (℃·d). The increment of≥10℃ accumulated temperature△ΣT10 is about 320-810(℃·d), and also have a trend of gradual decrease along latitudes. But△ΣT10 decreases in the southern coastal area of China. The increase of accumulated temperature and lasting days will be a beneficial facter for expanding the multiply-cultivated-system area, and for increasing the multiply crop index in China.