摘要
本文总结了一些震例震前的垂直形变特征，对垂直形变高梯度带和隆起区的形成机制和孕震原理作了分析，认为这两类形变异常区作为中长期地震危险区预测的地域标志是合理的。讨论了震级与形变异常区范围的一般关系，最后讨论了按贝叶斯公式计算形变异常区发生地震概率的方法。
In reference to the work completed by many researchers,the vertical deformation characteristics prior to earthquake events are summarized,the formative mechanism and the principle of generative earthquakes of the high gradient zone and the rising area are analysed.It is reasonable that the anomalous deformation area mentioned above is regarded as the seismic risk area to be predicted in Long-intermediate period. In addition, the general relation between the magnitude of an earthquake and the range of an anomalous deformation area, and the method for determining the probability of earthquake occurence in the risk area are discussed respectively.
出处
《地壳形变与地震》
CSCD
1994年第2期28-34,共7页
Crustal Deformation and Earthquake
基金
"2005年前我国大陆强震危险性预测研究"课题
关键词
地壳形变
地震预报
标志
crustal deformation, earthquake prediction, index
