摘要
以红河断裂带测区为例，用Ｘ射线法测量了测区的古构造残余应力场及其应变能密度场，用有限单元法计算了测区在两种边界条件下的水平最大剪应力场，用实验和理论证明了古构造残余主压应力大小和方向对岩石破坏、破裂扩展和震级的影响。用上述方法预测，松平—南涧、玉溪—开远、普洱为测区内强震危险区段。结合地球自转角速度相对变率的天文观测曲线在时间轴上的外延，预测得１９８９－１９９６、１９９９－２００４、２００７－２０１３、２０１６－２０１８年为测区内强震危险时段。
The paleotectonic residual stress field and its strain energy density field in Honghe fracture zone was measured by x-ray diffraction technique.The horizontal maximum shear stress field of the measuring area with two boundary conditions is calculated by limited unit analysis method and the effects of negnitude and direction of paleotectonic residula principal compressive stress on rock break ,crack propagation,and earthquake magnitude are discussed. On the basis of above results it is forecasted that Songping-Nanjian,Yuxi-Kaiyuan and Puer are risk areas of strong earthquake in measuring area and 1989-1996,1999-2004, 2007-2013,2016-2018 are risk perilds of strong earthquake in the measuring area with the temporal extension of astrobservational curve showing the variations of yearly average value of relative change rate of angular velocity of earth's rotation.
出处
《地壳形变与地震》
CSCD
1994年第1期66-73,共8页
Crustal Deformation and Earthquake
基金
地震学联合科学基金
关键词
应力场
地震
重迭法预测
强震
residual stress field, present stress field, suporimposing method, risk area, risk time
