努力创建地震预报的应用基础学科——兼论板内现今地壳运动动力学

EFFORT TO ESTABLISH APPLIED FUNDAMENT DISCIPLINE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION, AND DISCUSSION ON DYNAMICS OF RECENT INTERPLATE CRUSTAL MOUEMENT

分析地震预报已取得的成就和面临的困境,根据国内外各相关学科的新进展,作者认为创建地震预报的应用基础学科是当务之急。一种可能的选择是,在现今地球动力学、动力大地测量学(地壳形变学)、实时大地构造学及系统科学、非线性动力学等前沿学科的交叉部位上,逐步建立板内现今地壳运动动力学(或板内现今构造微动态动力学、或板内地壳形变系统动力学)。它既是地震、火山、滑坡、泥石流等灾害预测的应用基础,又是立脚于中国的全球变化研究。对它的意义、研究对象、内容与方法作了探讨,最后提出了一批建议着手开展的应用基础研究课题。

The obtained results and faced difficulties of earthquake prediction are analysed. Because of new development of Chinese and foreign associated disciplines, it is immediate task that applied fundament discipline of earthquake prediction is established. It is a possible election that dynamics of recent interplate crust movement (or microdynamics of recent interplate structrue or system dynamics of interplate crust deformation) is gradualy established in the intersection of recent geodynamics, dynamic geodesy (crustal deformology), tectonics of real time with the front disciplines of system science and nonlinear dynamics etc. They are both applied fundament of forecasting the disasters of earthquake, volcano, landslide and debris flow etc. and means of studying the world variation in China. Its object, content, method, basis and sense etc. are discussed, finally, some suggestions are proposed to carry out study task of applied fundament.