关于地电阻率短临机制与应用的研究

ON THE STUDY OF SHORT-IMPENDING MACHANISM OF GROUND RESISTIVITY AND ITS APPLICATION

在地震预报研究中，中长期预报的研究固然需要，但更有实际意义的应是短临预报的探索。但至今对短临预报问题的解决取得进展甚少。本文根据断裂力学观点，分析研究了大量的实测资料，发现地电阻率的突变与地下介质的破裂存在着一定联系。统计结果表明，一旦有台站出现突变，未来一个月内将有６０％以上可能，在其周围附近发生地震。因此，地电阻率的加减速变化所引起的地电突变是有可能作为震兆予以考虑。这些变化特征，不但在云南地区有，在其他地区也有，它是带一定普遍意义的。所以，熟悉掌握震前这些变化特征，对今后中强以上地震监视与研究是有其重要意义。

In the study of earthquake prediction, long-term and medium-term forecast of earthquake is important but research of short-impending prediction of earthquake is of more pratical significance. But up to now, the resolution of the problem of short-impending prediction has made very little progress.In this paper, based on the principles of fracture mechanics, authors analyse a vast amount of observation data and find sudden change in ground resistivity may be related lo rock fracture. The statistical result shows that if the sudden change is registered at some station, the earthquake with the probability of 60% or more may occur around the station in the future a month. So the geoelectrical sudden variation caused hy accelerating or decelerating change in ground resistivity could be considered as an earthquake precursor. The variation characteristics have occurred not only in Yunnan area but also in other areas. And it is of universal significance.Therefore,it is very important to identify the variation characteristics before earthquake in order to predict and study moderately strong earthquake or more in the future.