一种新的中长期电力负荷预测方法

A New Method of the Middle or Long Term Electric Load Forecasting

本文提出了一种新的中长期电力负荷预测方法。该方法将回归与自回归模型进行了有机的综合，形成了时间序列混合回归数学模型。采用ＢＩＣ准则函数进行选元定阶。较好地提高了预测精度。经实例计算得到了满意的结论。

This paper introduces a new method of the middle or long term electric load. The method combines the regression model with the autoregression model and composes the time-alignment mixed regression mathamatical model. BIC criterion is used to choose the variable and defined the steps. The accuracy and the range of the load forecasting are increased, verified by practical examples. This method has been in successful usage.