GM（1，1）包络模型中上、下包络模型的一种新的确定方法

A NEW METHOD OF SETTING GM(1,1) UPPER AND LOWER ENVELOPE MODEL

现有文献给出的确定ＧＭ（１，１）包络模型中上、下包络模型的方法．不仅存在有人为的主观成分．而且还不能保证所有的已知原始数据点都落在上、下包络模型曲线之间，这是不合理的．为此，作者研究提出了一种新的确定上、下包络模型的方法──非线性规划法，用这种方法确定的上、下包络模型，克服了现有文献给出的方法之不足．

The method introduced by existing literature for setting GM(1,1) upper and lower enevlope model is unreasonable because it is often affected by subjective factors and is not certainfor enveloping all initial data in its envelope region. Therefore,the paper presents a newmethod for setting GM(1,1)upper and lower envelope model--nonlinear programmingmethod -- to overcome the weaknesses or the old method.