降水、温度和日照时数的随机生成模型和验证

Stochastic Simulation Model and Its Verification of Precipitation,Temperature and Sunshining Hours

借鉴国内外较成功的气象要素随机生成模型并结合当地的具体条件，提出了一个日降水、最高、最低气温和日照时数的随机生成模型。在该模型中，降水过程用两状态的一阶马尔科夫链——偏斜正态分布模式描述；其它３个变量，则根据降水过程确定的干湿状态、每一变量的平均值和标准差，由多元模型确定。利用山西省介体、榆次和忻州三县多年实际气候资料对模型的可行性进行验证，结果表明该模型在研究条件下模拟值和实际值的差异不明显。模型可用于合理施肥和灌溉计划制定时，所需逐日气象数据的模拟。

This paper presents a stochastic model generating data of daily precip-tation,maximum and minimum temperatures and sunshining hours based on the home and foreign successful climatic stochastic model in close connection with the local specif-ic conditions. In this model,rainfall process is described using a two─ status first order Markow chain and a skewed normal distribution model.The other three variables are generated using a multivariated model with the means and standard deviations of the variables based on the wet or dry status of the day as determined by the precipitation model.The actual data of daily weather in Jiexiu, Yuci and Xinzhou of Shanxi Province are used to evaluate the feasibility of the model simulating daily weather conditions. The results show that in the case of model study.there is no significant difference between the actual data and the generated data. When the model is applied to ratioiial fertilizer application and working out the irrigation scheme. daily weather data to be used can be generated by the model.