塔克拉玛干沙漠周围主要河流水文序列特性分析

HYDROLOGIC SERIES CHARACTERISTICS ANAL YSIS OF THE MAJOR RIVERS AROUND THE TAKLIMAKAN DESERT

本文在利用数理统计方法分析塔克拉玛干沙漠周围主要河流水文特征基础上，重点利用时间序列分析方法，从时间域和频率域上分别分析了这些河流序列内部结构特征，通过分析初步认为本区河流水量是基本稳定的，各河流的年径流序列基本呈独立随机序列。在此基础上建立了随机模拟模型，从而为模拟本区河流径流变化规律，以及本区水资源合理开发利用提供了决策分析基础。

The Takimakan Desert is located at the middle part of the Tarim Basin. Because theprecipitation is rare and the evaporation capacity is intense,the Desert belongs to typicalarid land.The wnter resources in the Desert and the around region( i.e. in the TarimBasin)have become dominant elements for mankind subsistence,and restricted economicdevelopment and enviromental protection as well as petroleum exploitation. The water re-sources in this area are composed of surface water resources and groundwater resources,the surface runoff in the rivers comes from the mountainous area around the Tarim Basin.The rivers flow through the margin of the Tarim Basin and disappear in the TaklimakanDesert at last. The groundwater resources are mostly come out of surface water resources.Thus,it is important to recognize the hydrologic characteristics and runoff variation law.In this paper,taking the seven typical rivers as examples and basing on observed runoffdata,the rivers hydrologic characteristics is discussed by using mathematical statisticsmethod and the structure feature of annual runoff series is illustrated by applying time se-ries analysis method.The seven typical rivers are the Kaidu river,Weigan river,Akeshuriver,Yarkand river,Hetian river, Keriya river and Cheerchen river,In these rivers,thefirst three rivers are on the north of the Desert and the last four rivers are on the sourth ofthe desert.As the runoff amount, the first five rivers are greater than 15 × 10￣8m￣3 and thelast two rivers are greater than 5 × 10￣8m￣3.Because the discharge in these rivers is large,most rivers around the large desert.The research primarily indicates that the rivers aroundthe Taklimakan Desert are typical inland rivers. Taking mountain pass as boundary line,the mountainous area is alimentation area of the rivers flow and the dry desert in the Basin is disappearance area. The source of water in the rivers comes from precipitation and melt- ing water of glacier,and the latter proportion is larger. The variation of annual runoff in the river is small,the variation cofficients C_v=0.15-0.22,and the runoff volume of riversis approximately steady. But the river discharge season variation in the year is large. Be-cause the amount of runoff in summer is larger(about >50%annual runoff),and in win-ter and spring is small (about<10%and<20%annual runoff)the flood damage in sum- mer is seriotis but the irrigation water in spring is short.In the time series analysis of therunoff,the annual runoff series of rivers in the Tarim Basin is mostly independent station-ary random sequence,The quantity of water in the rivers is approximately steady for sever-al tens of year in this area. The reasons for a decrease in discharge to flow into the largedesert and a deterioration of vegetation are increases in irrigation water of the oasisagriculture in the margin of the Tarim Basin. In the end of the paper, the simulation mod-els have been built. On the basis of research,the suggestion of rational exploitation and u-tilization of water resources in this area is put forward.This paper will provide scientifichasis for water resources utilization and optimization in the conjunctive use of groundwaterand surface water in this area. Meanwhile,it will provide a decision- making basis for re-sources exploitation,economic development and enviroment protection.