1996～2010年中国储蓄和投资前瞻

Prospects for China's Savings and Investment during 1996-2010 Period

中国经济自实行改革开放以来,出现了高速增长趋势。1979～1992年,国民经济年均增长9％,预计1993～1995年的GNP年均增长速度也将达到相近的水平。按照国际发展经济学的观点,如此长久的持续高增长,表明中国经济已进入“起飞”阶段。我国目前所处发展阶段是从低收入的发展中国家向中等偏低收入发展中国家的转变阶段。未来的15年(1996～2010年),中国经济可望达到中等收入国家的平均水平。但最终能否实现这样的发展实绩,除社会政治基本稳定的前提条件外,资金供给即总储蓄和总投资能否保持经济起飞的需要将是一个关键性因素,本文试图就此做出分析和预测。

After reform and opening-up, China's economy has been developing in a high speed. During 1979-1992 period, the average annual growth rate of national economy was 9 per cent. It is aniicipated that from1993 to 1995, the annual GNP increase rate will be the similar level. According to the theory of international development economics, such a long and sustained high -seed growth shows that China's economy has come into the 'take-off' period, China is now t the stage of transforming from a low income developing country to a low of middle income developing country. In the next 15 years (1996-2010), China is expected to reach the average economic level of middle income country. But whether China can realize this goal depends not only on a politically stable society, but also on whether the money supply-the total savings and investment-can meet the needs of economic take-off. This article will make analysis and predicts about this issue.