对我国消费市场行为的分析与思考

Analysing China's Consumer Market

1993年的经济高速增长带来了市场的繁荣。但是随着宏观储蓄政策效应的增强以及融资导向的作用,居民实际消费与收入规模却呈现出明显的不对称现象,最明显的就是居民平均消费倾向已经连续5年下降,而代之以储蓄倾向和手持现金率的上升,这种情况表明经过1988年后的强力紧缩,市场需求正呈现出明显不足的迹象。这种趋势的发展势必影响到今后消费市场乃至消费品工业的发展。笔者认为,在确保市场有效供给增强的基础上,当前有必要适当刺激居民的消费需求。特别是随着市场机制的加强及各种宏观调节政策交错推出,1994年的市场形势不容乐观,这就迫使我们更加理智地探讨消费行为及其对收入、消费和市场前景的影响,有效地运筹政策,以使市场运行摆脱似热而实际为冷的局面,促使宏观经济运行进入持续、稳定和协调发展的良性循环之中。

The fast growth of economy in 1993 has brought about a flourishing market. But under the guidance of macro savings policies and financial capital, people's actual consumption and income have become non-symmetrical. It is very conspicuous that the average consumption tendency has been dropping for five years while the savings tendency as well as cash held by the people have been going up. This shows that after the stringent measures of 1988, market demand is fairly weak. This continuing tendency will hinder the development of consumer market and consumer goods industry. The author holds that it is necessary to stimulate people's consumption needs at present based on guaranteeing market supply. With the strengthening mechanism and the carry out of various macro control measures, market situation in 1994 is not very bright. We are thus forced to further study consumption actinon as well as its influence upon income, consumption and market prospect. We should make full use of the policies so as to get rid of the cool market and let the macro economy have a sustained, stable and co-ordinated development.