土坡渐近破坏的模糊概率模型

FUZZY PROBABILISTIC MOPEL OF PROGRESSIVE FAILURE OF SLOPES

本文提出了土坡渐近性破坏的模糊概率模型。渐近性破坏定义为在统计均质土体中，沿着潜在滑动面破坏区空间地和连续地扩展。滑动面上任一分块的局部安全储备假定遵循正态分布，而任意两相邻分块连接部的安全储备假定为两维正态分布。由概率论和模糊数学理论得出了各分块发生局部破坏和破坏扩展的模糊概率计算公式。用提出的模型研究渐近性破坏，有助于深刻理解相邻分块或土体截面上稳定性的相互关联特性．实例表明，本方法是可行的。

in this paper, a fuzzy probabilistic model of progressive failure of slopes is put forward. The progressive failure is defined as the failure area develops in space and continually along the potential slide carved surface in statistical even soil. It is supposed that the partial secure reserve of any slip on the surface is a random variable and follows normal distribution, while the secure reServe of the union part of any two adjacent slips is supposed to be a random variable and follows two d imension normal distribution. According to probabilistic theory and fuzzy mathematics, the formula to calculate fuzzy probability of any slips damage and of the development of failure is derived.And use is made of the model to study the progressive failure, which would be helpful to understand deeply the interrelated peculiarity of stability between two slips. The example indicates that this method is feaSible.