我国未来油气产储量预测

A Forecast of the Future production and Reserves of Chinese Oil and Gas

对国民经济和油气发展速度、节能、油气供需和能源结构等因素的综合分析表明,我国未来油气消费的弹性系数应高于其他能源,天然气应更高些。据此,对我国近、中、长期的油气产储量进行多种方案的预测,并通过资源保障程度及相关弹性系数分析,对预测结果进行分析、比较和评价,优选出较具可能性的方案。按照优选方案,2000、2020、2050年我国石油产量将分别为1.54、2.29和2.29亿吨,天然气产量分别是262.63、842.29和3642.06亿立方米。1991～2020年油气年均应探明储量分别为8.05亿吨和1136.80亿立方米,2021～2050年油气年均应探明储量分别为4.60亿吨和5157.50亿立方米。从优选方案结果及未来人均占有量和需求量分析,我国油气将长期供不应求,缺口越来越大,因此今后石油应“细水慢流”,对天然气应大力发展。

A synthetical study of such factors as the development speed of the national economy, the development of oil and gas, energy saving, oil and gas supply and demand, and the national energy structure, has anticipated that the future elasticity of Chinese oil and gas consumption will be higher than that of any other forms of energy, with gas consumption in particular reaching the highest level.This study has completed a series of short, middle, and long range forecasts of Chinese oil and gas reserves. After many analyses of the guaranteed resource quantity and the relative elasticity coefficient , as well as comparisons and evaluations of the forecasting results given the following outcome as the most accurate forecast of future Chinese production and reserve strength. The projected Chinese oil outputs in the years 2000, 2020, and 2050 are 154,229, and,229 million tons respectively with the gas output projected at 26263, 84229, and 364206 million cubic meters. From the years 1991 to 2020 the average proven annual oil reserve should rest at 805 million tons while the gas reserves reach 515750 million cubic meters. During the years 2021 to 2050 the average prbven annual oil reserves will be 460 million tons with gas reserves at 515750 million cubic meters.According to an analysis of these results and the future energy possession and demand per capita, the Chinese oil and gas supply is anticipated to fall short of demand and this gap will enlarge gradually over time. Therefore this study concludes that in the days to come oil should be developed carefully at a controlled rate while gas be developed vigorously.