国内石油市场回顾与展望

The Domestic Oil Market: A Retrospective and Prospectus

1993年国内石油市场有3个方面的特点:①石油交易市场发展迅速,石油交易市场或交易所的涌现,规范了交易行为,培育了石油市场。②油价起落幅度较大,上半年油价向高位攀升;下半年,在国家宏观经济调整及进口油的影响下,油价开始下跌,年末跌入低谷。③供求关系发生逆转,尤其是下半年,我国石油市场上首次出现买方市场。展望1994年,国内经济仍将保持高速度发展,石油需求旺盛,加之汇率并轨、原油价格“平转高”等因素,均会导致油价上升。但受1993年末国内油市供过于求的影响,1994年1～4月份的油市仍呈疲软,不会有明显改善;估计4月份以后油价将反弹,到下半年油市才能真正转旺。所以,1994年国内油市行情的大趋势将是:先跌后升,稳中趋升,窄幅波动,局部攀高。

From an overall perspective, the characteristics of the domestic oil market in 1993 can be summarized as follows: 1. Oil exchange markets developed rapidly. The boom in oil exchange markets and the standardization of exchange actions fostered oil market development. 2. Oil prices rose and fell dramatically. The oil price soared in the first half of 1993 then,as a result of the State's macro-economic adjustment and the importation of oil, began to fall during the second half of the year,sliding to a low valley. 3. The relationship between supply and demand reversed, particularly in the second half of the year when a buyer's market appeared for the first time in our oil market. The domestic economy in 1994 will maintain a high speed development. The oil demand will be strong. Under the State's plan some crude oil prices will be, raised to a higher level than previously. In addition the old two foreign exchange systems have been incorporated into one. These factors all mean a rise in the Chinese oil price,however,due to the current over-abundant domestic oil supply left from the last year, the softness in oil price will not improve significantly for the first four months of 1994- It is estimated that the oil price will bounce back in April,and in the second half of 1994 the oil market will become strong. Therefore, the general trend of the domestic market in 1994 will be for an initial fall followed by a climb. Prices will rise slowly and steadily, with fluctuations over only a very narrow range.