国内油品市场供需形势分析

Supply and Demand of Oil products in the Domes-tic Market

1993年国内石油产品消费增长势头旺盛,需求增长幅度创十年来的最高纪录。上半年供应趋紧,价格高涨;下半年供应增多,需求增长减弱,价格回落。全年油品进口量比上年增加1.25倍,净进口量达1300万吨,占国内需求总量的10％。1994年国内原油价格将再度调升并于年初开始实行包括增收汽、柴油消费税在内的税制改革,这些可能对油品需求产生抑制作用。所以,今年国内石油产品需求的增长将会减缓,预计增幅为8.5％。受原油涨价和税制改革的影响,今年春夏季可能会有新的油品价格改革方案出台,计划内油品价格与市场价格的差价将进一步缩小甚至拉平。预计今年油品进口量与1993年大致相等甚至有所减少。

In 1993,domestic oil products were in great demand as the growth rate reached the highest level achieved in the past ten years. During the first half of the year, oil products were in short supply and prices soared. In the second half, the oil products supply increased while demand cooled, leading to a downturn in prices. Oil products importation in 1993 increased 1. 25 times over the previous year with net importation reaching 13 MT,and occupying 10% of the total domestic demand. In 1994, domestic crude oil prices will show a dramatic increase. The systematic tax reform, including an increase in gasoline and diesel consumption taxes came into effect at the beginning of this year. Those factors:may run counter to oil products demand, therefore the growth rate is expected to slow to a rate of 8-5%. Due to the effects of the new tax reform and increased crude oil prices, a new series of oil products price reforms will be issued. The gap between the planned and market prices of oil products will be further narrowed or even closed. It is expected that the importation of oil products this year will remain on a par with last year or will show a decrease.