近中期世界石油市场趋势分析

An Analysis of World Oil Market Trend

1990～1993年世界石油需求增长缓慢,石油供应充裕、库存增加,原油价格在低价位波动。预计1994～1995年,发展中国家石油需求继续以较高速度增长,前苏联和东欧的石油需求将继续下降或停滞,发达国家石油需求增长幅度将大于前几年,世界石油需求将以年均1％左右的速度上升。原苏联石油产量下降幅度逐渐减小,伊拉克难以返回石油市场,欧佩克其他成员国产能持续增加,发达国家总体产量有所上升,非欧佩克发展中国家石油产量也将增加,致使全球石油供应依然过剩,油价维持现有水平或略有回升。1995～2000年世界石油需求将年均增长1.56％,石油供应偏紧且对中东产油国的依赖增加,油价总体呈上升趋势。

Between 1990 arid 1993. the world oil demand grew slowly. while the oil supply was sufficent and oil storage increased- Thus, crude prices fluctuated at a very low level- It is expected that in 1994 - 1995. the oil demand from developing countries will com in ue increasing at a relatively high speed; the oil demand from the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Eu ropean countries will be lower or stagnant; and that from developed countries will be much higher than the past few years. So the global oil demand will in crease at the speed of 1% annually. On the other side, the global oil supply will still be in surplus,due to the following factors; the oil production in the FSU is decreasing at a much lower speed, Iraq's difficulties to return to the world oil market,the production capacities of the OPEC', members will steadily increase. and the oil production either from developed countries or the non-OPEC developing countries will also grow. Therefore, the price of oil will remain at the current level or probably rise slightly. From 1995 -2000, the world oil demand will increase at the speed of 1.56% annually, the oil supply will tend to be short, the dependence on the Middle East oil producing countries will increase, and oil prices will generally rise.