世界石油市场走势及中国应采取的对策

Trends of the World Petroleum Market and China's Response

关于未来10～15年世界石油市场走势,有两种观点具有一定的代表性。一种观点认为总趋势仍将是供大于求,油价难以大幅度上扬;另一种观点认为世界石油市场将在2000年前后出现明显变化,逐渐走向供不应求,到2010年前后,油价会有大幅度的上升。针对国际国内石油市场趋势,我国一方面应加强石油勘探,在油田开发上考虑投入产出的实际效益,对国内石油工业的发展和进口石油采取灵活的政策,在两种利益关系中寻找经济上的最佳结合点。另一方面,应加快石油价格体制改革,建立并完善石油市场机制;大力开展节能降耗活动,积极开发替代石油的新能源。

There are two major schools of thought concerning estimates of trends in the world petroleum market in the coming ten to fifteen years. The first contends that the world market will continue to experience a state of oversupply, with no sizable rise in the price of oil. The second contends that considerable changes in the world market around the year 2000, with supply gradually becoming insufficient to meet demand, will result in substantial increase in oil prices by 2010. In either case, China must increase its petroleum exploration activities, considering actual benefits of input and output in oilfield development, and adopt flexible policies concerning the development of the domestic petroleum industry and petroleum import, optimally balancing these two aspects in order to attain the greatest financial gain. At the same time, China should speed up reform of the oil pricing system in order to establish and perfect its petroleum market, develop energy conservation on a large scale, and actively develop petroleum substitutes.