热带气旋影响下上海港水位数值模拟和预报方法研究

STUDY ON THE NUMERICAL SIMULATIOM AND PREDICTION METHODS FOR WATER LEVEL OF SHANGHAI HARBOUR

基于二线台风风暴潮动力──数值模式和二维天文潮动力──数值模式，本文提出了一个包含天文潮和风暴潮非线性相互作用的综合水位数值模拟和数值预报方法。该方法经对1951－1986年间对上海港影响较大的8场台风期间的综合水位进行数值模拟，结果令人满意。运用该方法对9015号台风期间的上海港综合水位的试报和后报结果比较表明，水位误差主要来自台风路径和强度的预报而不是水位预报方法本身，所提出的适用于上海港水位数值预报方法有着广阔的应用前景。

Based on the two-dimensional storm surge and astronomical tide dynamic models, a numerical water level simulation/prediction method incorporating nonlinear interaction between tide and surge has been developed in this paper. The method has been successfully applied to the numerical water level simulations in Shanghai harbour during eight historical tropical cyclones (TC) affecting the harbour seriously from 1951 to 1986.Comparison between the results of the tentative forecast and hindcast of the water level in Shanghai during TC 9015 showed that the water level errors were mainly caused by the inaccurate predictions of the tracks and intensities of the tropical cyclones, not by the proposed method itself.