大鹏湾夜光藻赤潮发生要素的结构分析

STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF THE ESSENTIAL FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTILUCA SCINTILLANS RED TIDE IN DAPENG BAY

根据1990—1992年期间对大鹏湾所发生的夜光藻赤潮的大量研究资料，从气象、海况、化学、生物等4方面筛选出大鹏湾夜光藻赤潮发生环境的22种基本要素，并利用演绎结构模拟（ISM）方法，分析各要素之间的直接（因果）关系和间接关系，推导出大鹏湾夜光藻赤潮发生要素的整体关联结构图，从6个先后层次上直观地反映出赤潮发生的全过程，为建立赤潮发生机理的动态数学模型打下基础，且可为研制赤潮预测预报系统提供若干参考依据。

Based on a lot of research literature on the Noctiluca tcintillans red tide in Dapeng Bay, South China Sea, in 1990-1992, 22 essential factors associated with thisred tide were selected from different environmental aspects of meteorology, oceanography, chemistry and biology. Directly causal and indirect relations existing amongdifferent factors were analysed using the interpretive structural modelling (ISM) method. The resulting integral relation structure diagram of those factors associated with this red tide in Dapeng Bay shows clearly the entire course of this red tide in sixlevels. It gives a base to build a model of the red tide dynamics and is useful fordevelopment of a forecasting system of this red tide.