ENSO现象与初夏副高位置及山东半岛夏季降水的关系

THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE ENSO EVENT WITH THE POSITIOPJ OF SUBTROPICL HIGH IN EARLY SUMMER AND THE SUMMER RAINFALL IN SHANDONG PENINSULA

本文分析了ＥＮＳＯ现象与初夏副高脊线位置与山东半岛夏季降水的关系，得出埃尔－尼诺现象次年初夏副高位置正常或偏南，对应山东半岛夏季降水偏少；反埃尔－尼诺现象次年，初夏副高位置偏北。对应山东半岛夏季降水为偏多趋势。通过相关计算发现，初夏到高脊线位置与赤道东太平洋海温有显著的反相关，而与南方涛动指数有明显的正相关，其相关最佳时段均发生在前一年的秋、冬季。据此可提前１～２个季度预报初夏副高位置，进而为山东半岛夏季降水趋势预报提供信息和依据。

Abstract The relationship of E1 Nino with the position of subtropical high ridge in early summer and the summer rainfall in shandong peninsula was analysed in this paper.The result indicates that in the second year afer E1 Nino, the position of subtropical high ridge line in early summer will be to the south of the normal and the summer rainfall in shandong peninsula is less than the normal;while in the year next to anti-E1Nino year,the position of the subtropical high ridge line will be to north of the normal,and the summer rainfall in Shandong peninsula is more than the normal.The correlation of the position of the subtropical high ridge line in early summer with the SST over equatoral East Pacific is significantly negative, and it is positive with the southern oscillation index, The best correlation are in the autumn and winter of last year.Based upon this we can predict the position of subtropical high ridge line in early summer one or two season ahead and also provide some information for summer rainfall in Shandong peninsula.