东海热带低压发展的预报模式

FORECASTING METHOD OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST CHINA SEA

本文通过对初始场及环境场与东海热带低压发展关系的统计分析，提出了一个预报２４小时东海热带低压发展与否的预报模式。模式从初始场及环境场的参数与导出因子中选取天气学意义明确的高相关预报因子，建立判别及回归的统计预报模式。检验及应用表明该预报模式对东海热带低压的发展与否具有预报能力。

Ih this paper on the base of statistical analysis of relationship between environmental fields,origin fields and tropi caf depression develop ment,tile statistical predi ction model s for tropi caf depression deyelopment over East China Sea were developed By using predictors which areselected from parameters and derivative factors of envi ronmental fields,origin fields,and stepwise discriminate method and stepwise repressionmethod,the predictive functions and equations are constructed.The forecasting tests indicate that these models work well.