小麦白粉病中期预测模型的建立

Establishment of the Middle-period Forcasting Model for Powdery Mildew of wheat

本研究以河北省辛集市为实验基地，通过利用从１９８５～１９９２年连续８年的小麦白粉病病情系统调查资料以及有关的气象资料，在ＩＢＭ微机上用逐步回归的统计方法建立了小麦白粉病的中期预测式：ｙ＝－６．０３０５＋１．２０１１Ｘ１＋０．０１８８Ｘ２２＋０．３８１９ｘ５，其中ｙ代表病情指数，Ｘ１、Ｘ２、Ｘ３分别代表品种抗病性参数、预测期前一旬的平均温度和旬总降雨量。经检验模型准确率达８１．６％，模型的建立为白粉病的早期防治提供了依据。

The research work was based on the experiments in Xinji city.By using the systemic investigation data about powdery mildew of wheat and-the meteorological data of eight consecutive years from 1985 to 1992,a middle-term forcasting model was established by step-regrssion method in IBM personal computer:y=-6. 035 + 1. 2011X1 + 0. 01882X2 + 0. 3819X in which Ystands for disease index, X1, X2, X3 represent the resistant index of cultivars, the average temperature and the total precipitation in ten days about a month before the predicted time respectively. By validation, the accurate rate was as high as 81. 6%. Based on the information provided by the model, an early control of powdery mildew could be done.