线性扰动模型在洪水随机模拟中的应用

Application of Liear Perturbation Model in Flood Stochastic Se-quences Simulation

将线性扰动模型用于模拟多站洪水过程线，提供了多水库长系列洪水，扩大了线性扰动模型的应用领域。模型的概念清楚，操作方便，具有足够的精度，改善了现行设计洪水的计算方法，对我国两个洪水特性不同的流域进行了科学的论证检验，模拟的洪水系列能够反映该地区洪水的重要随机特性，合格率达９０％以上。

he purpose of this paper is to further use the features of the model to simulate multi-station flood hydrographs and to provide long term multi-reservoir floods so as to extend the appli-cation of the linear Perturhation model.This paper deals with the scientific test and veritica-tion for two catchments of different hydrological features. The results clearl y demostrate that the qualified tests exceed 90%. The simulated floods can reflect the important stochas- tic features of floods in those areas and the precision is sufficiently high. The present calcu-latlon method of design flood is improved.haddition , the concept of the model is clear and the model is easy to use.