长江口多年一遇模拟台风的推算

Calculation of a Given Return Period Simulated Typhoon at Yangtze Estuary

统计了１９４９～１９８７年进入研究地点一定范围内的台风诸要素（中心气压差、最大风速半径、地点、台风移动速度和方向等）的概率分布，得到台风强度符合韦布尔分布，而最大风速半径符合极值Ⅰ型分布的结论。根据台风诸要素为相互独立的假定，确定了台风强度与最大风速半径的联合分布模式，并进行了随机组合，给出了某一重现期的模拟台风，该台风可用于推算相同重视期的台风波浪或台风增水。

he probability distribution of typhoon parameters(central pressure deficit , radius of maximum windspeed,landing point,velocity , direction, ect.)is investigated for a region under investigation for the period from 1949 to 198 7,and the conclusion is obtained that ty phoon i ntenslty is in agreement with Wibell distribution,and radius of maximum wlnd-spoed with extremum I distribution. Accoding to the assumption of independence of warame- ters, joint distributlon formula is established. The derived probability distribution of typhoon parameters are then conbined at random to derlve a given peried Simulated typhoon. this can be used to estimate typhcon wave or wind setup in that area, which have same return peri-od.