游程理论在河南省冬小麦干旱问题中的应用研究

Application of runs to the Drought of Winter Wheat in Henan Province

以３６ａ降水资料为分析序列，应用游程分析方法，对河南省６个自然区冬小麦４个主要生育期干旱特征进行了可行性分析。得出了游程理论的极限干旱历时概率密度函数适用于冬小麦干旱概率特征的结论，并通过对比分析，定量说明了各地区极限干旱历时的特征，为预测干旱灾害发生的持续性和强度提供了理论依据。

This paper analysed the feasibility of using the run theory to the winter wheatduring 4 main growth periods in the 6 natural regions of Henan Province with 36-year pre-cipitation series. The results showed that the probability model of the longest run was ap-plicable to the drought of winter wheat. Furthermore, the features of drought in each indi-vidual region were contrastively analysed. The above results provided a theoretical basisfor the prediction of the duration and density of drought.