论太湖平原洪涝灾害与水利工程问题和发展趋势

ON THE FLOOD DISASTERS AND THE WATER CONSERVANCY WORKS IN THE TAIHU LAKE PLAIN,AND THEIR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

在分析研究太湖流域洪涝灾害成因及以围圩、筑堤、建闸为特点的圩区经济基础上,论述了近几十年来流域下垫面变化对流域水情的影响。总结了近40年来流域水利工程规划设计的经验与不足之处;展望了未来几十年流域水情变化发展趋势,特别是全球海平面上升对流域洪水蓄、泄方面的重大影响。指出在流域十大骨干水利工程的基础上,今后流域中新建骨干工程的关键目标是提高长江南岸、杭州湾北岸闭闸时段的排洪能力及建设吴淞挡潮闸,从而大幅度提高各潮周期内黄浦江净泄洪量;同时运用非工程措施,确保与充分利用区内洪水调蓄能力。

This paper analyses the origin of flood disaster in the Taihu Lake Plain and historical development of the water conservancy works, examines the natural and anthropogenic changes of Taihu Lake drainage basin and its hydrological consequences over the past 40 years. Comments are made on the planning and design of the water conservancy works since the 1980s. The hydrological changes and the associated flood s in the coming decades are discussed, with a special concern about the major impacts of global sea-level rise on the storage and release capacity of floodwater. It is pointed out that, on the basis of 'The Ten Major Water Conservancy Works', the principal target of future hydro-engineering works should be focused on the great improvement of floodwater pumping capacity during the period of high-water and of the net floodwater release out of the Huangpu River within each tidal cycle by building the Wusong Sluice. Meanwhile, non-engineering measures should be taken to protect and fully exploit the storage capacity of floodwater in the drainage basin.