摘要
本文应用动态系统时间连续模型建立的新方法(DM(n,h)模型),通过对唐山老震区M_L>4.7级地震的建模,讨论DM(n,h)模型对唐山老震区晚期强余震预测的可行性.并比较了DM(n,h)模型与GM(n,h)模型,发现DM(n,h)模型优于GM(n,h)模型,同时,给出了唐山老震区晚期强余震的预报结果.
In this paper , a new method of establishing differential equation time continuous model (DM (n,h )model)is used to evaluate the strong aftershocks (ML 4. 7)in late period of Tangshan seismic region,the probability of earthquades prediction in small regions is also given by DM (n, h) model. GM (n,h) model is compared with DM (n, h). It is found that DM (n, h ) model has more advantages thanGM (n, h) model.
出处
《华北地震科学》
北大核心
1994年第2期66-71,共6页
North China Earthquake Sciences
关键词
地震预测
余震
连续模型
: DM (n, h) model, GM (n, h) model, strong aftershock prediction in late period of Tangshan seismic region
