摘要
本文在前两篇论文的基础上，进一步将地震综合效应场函数方法应用于地震短期预报。以大华北地区（３３°－４３°Ｎ，１１０°－１２５°Ｅ）为例，应用一年内该范围内发生的ＭＬ≥３级地震的综合效应场预测下一季度Ｍｓ≥４级地震的发生地点。应用１９７０—１９９０年的资料，计算预测了共８０个季度，其中预测区内发生的地震占应预测地震总数的８３％，有震预测区占总预测区的５０．５％。预测区内的地震密度是预测区外的６０—７０倍，效果颇为明显。同时还对月预报及年度预报的应用进行了尝试，其效果也较好。
In this paper, basing on the previous two papers, the function method of seismic comprehensiveeffect field is further applied in short - term of earthquake. Taking large North China area (33°-43°N,110-125°E) as an example, the comprehensive effect field of the earthquakes of ML≥3 occurred in thearea in one year is used to predict the occurrence places of earthquakes of Ms≥4 in the mext season. 80seasons are calculated and predicted by the data from 1970 to 1990, the earthquakes occurred in the predicted area makes up 83% of the total earthquakes which should be predicted, the predicted area whereearthquakes occurred makes up 50. 5 % of the total predicted area. The earthquake density in predicted area is 60-70 times larger than that outside the predicted area, the effect is quite clear. Meanwhileit is tried to be applied in monthly prediction and year prediction, and its effect is relatively good
出处
《华北地震科学》
北大核心
1994年第4期1-8,共8页
North China Earthquake Sciences
关键词
地震综合效应场函数
地震预报
华北
地震破裂面
function of seismic comprehensive effect field, short-term prediction of earthquake
