水库地震震级预测的讨论

DISCUSSION ON THE MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE PREDICTION METHOD OF RESERVOIR-INDUCED EARTHQUAKE

作者于１９８７年提出用水库“综合影响参数Ｅ”预测水库地震最大震级Ｍ的方法以来，为许多工程和科研人员引用或讨论．后来，除Ｅ外我们又增加了最大库深Ｈｍａｘ，并把它们都视为具有随机统计偏差的变量进行回归．为使关心的读者更多了解本法，本文讨论了回归变量的物理意义及其随机性、回归方法、几种回归结果的比较，以及实际应用时的修正问题．

After the authors put forward the method, which uses 'reservoir comprehensive affecting parameter,E' to predict the maximum magnitude,M,of reservoir-induced earthquake,certain persons use the method to predict M of new built reservoir,or predict earthquake tendency of a reservoir where earthquake occurred,or use it to research the other problems of reservoir induced earthquake,there is someone who researches the regression approach of M and E.Afterwards, the authors and the regression variable Hmax except E,and taken E and Hmax as variables with random statistical deviation. In order to enable readers futherly to understand the substance of this method, in this paper,the authors explain the physical means of the regression variables and thier radomness,second,discuss the regression approach, third, discuss the results of several regression approaches,end, propose the preliminary opinion on correct the predicted value of M.